journal report: No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust?

 this paper (PDF) by Barbara Harff, 2003, was linked to in the wiki article on Democide and i found it a useful model to evaluate world situations. it's 17 pages long but some dense reading. what are her findings? democides are likely after political upheaval, with a prior history of genocide, exclusionary ideology of elite, autocratic leadership, ethnic minority leadership, and minimal cross border commerce. interestingly, international political relationships and poverty are not predictive of democide. what does this mean in expanded terms?
political upheaval - civil wars or status quo earthquakes (not democrat/republican) rattle unstable people and make them think that they must kill or be killed (a slippery slope argument with a very high cost result). tossing out monarchs seems to trigger big messes. in 1917 Russia cast off its Tsar. perhaps, though not mentioned in this report, Cromwell's bloody revolution in England falls into this category. Ivan the terrible cast off the restraints of his court boyars.
prior history of genocide - monarchies are not unknown for politicide, so when they are thrown off, history shows that killing alot of people keeps power out of their hands
exclusionary ideology - in worlds without grey, only black and white, purity and fidelity to ideology might keep one from being labeled and killed. one label is all it takes to get the death sentence
autocratic leadership
- dictators don't have checks and balances so they can make policies that kill at their whim, just like a king
ethnic minority leadership - if you have a chip on your shoulder and you get in power, why not treat those bullies the way that will teach them a lesson?
cross border commerce - trade restrictions don't affect countries that don't trade

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